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Oversold in an Uptrend: WLA
by kensey

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Warner Lambert Co (WLA)








It's important to identify the difference between stochastic and MACD.

MACD is a trending indicator. It tells us at a general level whether a stock is in an uptrend or a downtrend. This is the first assessment you should make on a stock. If it's trending up, you want to be long. If it's trending down, you want be short.

Stochastic indicates short-term fluctuation. It displays the short-term movement of a stock.

So MACD tells you whether you want to be long or short, and stochastic helps you pinpoint opportunities to trade in the direction of that trend.

When WLA (which has been in a strong uptrend for most of its adult life) crossed below the bottom reference line on the stochastic indicator graph in mid-April, it became short-term oversold.

Remember this simple rule:

  Long-term Uptrend
+ Short-term Oversold
  ---------------------
  Good Buying Opportunity!

The beauty of this strategy is that as emotion grips the market in short-term bursts of buying and selling, opportunities present themselves to "get in" or "get out," in line with the longer-term trend that has demonstrated persistence and staying power. Simply put, this strategy affords you the advantage of trading in the direction of the long-term trend and against the direction of the short-term reaction.

The oversold condition on stochastic in early June looks to have been a bad signal. One tip-off was the heavy selling leading in to the oversold condition. Investors bailed out in droves right as the MACD green trending bar appeared (which also appears to have been a bad signal). This happens.

Now, a pitched battle is going on as WLA struggles to hold above its 50-day EMA. There have been increases both in volume and volatility. It is best to wait these things out. Increases in volume and volatility are typical ways even the best of trends comes to an end. And it appears to be a total crapshoot which side ends up winning the battle.


Next: Overbought in a Downtrend: PTEL


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