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Stochastic Mannerisms in a Strong Downtrend: TDDDF
by kensey

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3dlabs Inc Ltd (TDDDF)







When a stock is in a strong downtrend, the lines on the stochastic indicator graph will spend the majority of their time down around the lower reference line. A good way to interpret this is as "persistent short-term weakness".

Nevertheless, short bursts of buying will inevitably cause the stochastic lines to make their way to the upper reference line. These are near-perfect shorting opportunities, because often, once a stock goes into a severe downtrend it never seems to recover.

For TDDDF, the first decent shorting opportunity occurs all the way on the left-hand side of the stochastic graph in early April when a spurt causes the lines to cross into overbought. Once the lines leave the overbought region, they fall very hard and very fast and bury themselves beneath the lower reference line in oversold territory for most of the next two months. Only in early May do the lines try to escape the clutches of oversold, only to be sucked back in. The stock gets chopped from 25 all the way down to 5.

The next shorting opportunity happens in early June, with the stock down at 8 dollars a share. The symmetrical shape of the stochastic lines as they cross into overbought is exactly what you want to see: a very clean shape.


But the shorting opportunity in July is even better. The shape of the stochastic lines as they cross into overbought is wider (like a bell curve). The stock hits the 50-day EMA (pink) line. Once it exits overbought, the stock heads straight into oversold and, by the end of August, gets chopped from 9 to around 2. This seals the fate of TDDDF (at least for now). As was the case in early May, the stock made an attempt to escape the clutches of oversold only to get half-way up the scale before getting sucked back down.


Next: A Truly Oscillating Stock: SEG


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