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Trending
by kensey

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Trending

The price action of a stock is categorized as either trending (moving generally up or down) or range-bound (sideways). Trending stocks are going somewhere in a vertical direction, while range-bound stocks travel horizontally.

A trend exists when prices keep rising or falling over time. This is called directional price action. In an uptrend, each rally (upsurge) penetrates a higher price level than the prior rally, and each retracement (fall) stops above the level associated with the prior retracement. It's like a set of stairs at an angle.

MACD helps identify whether or not a stock trends. We feel it is far easier to make money by investing in stocks that trend versus stocks that do not trend.

ClearStation maps MACD action onto the top of the price graph so that a stock's trending tendency is readily apparent. Uptrends are suggested by green bars while downtrends are represented by red bars. While we don't purport to have built an automated trading system, we think the bars will help you identify which stocks exhibit good characteristics of trendability. If the bars above the price graph are well timed, that stock trends. If the bars above the price graph are ill timed, that stock does not trend. By avoiding stocks that do not exhibit the tendancy to trend, you will be more successful in your investing.

America Online Inc (AOL)







What's the big deal about trending?
It's far easier to make money in stocks that trend than in stocks that only fluctuate up and down.

The first assessment you should make of a stock is whether it's trending. A stock in an uptrend has a MACD indicator graph (the third graph from the top) where the centerline (0.0) is pushed down towards the bottom, or a MACD indicator graph where the centerline doesn't even exist (the bottom of the indicator graph is the centerline). It's in "positive ground."

The magnitude does not matter that much. What matters more is where the 0.0 line sits. Is it in the middle (a crapshoot)? Is it towards the top (downtrend) or is it at the bottom (uptrend)?

Take a look at the MACD graph for AOL. Do you see how the centerline is pushed to the bottom and how the red and blue lines soar above it? It's signaling an uptrend. Now look at the price graph and see how the soaring prices of the stock are echoing what the MACD graph was telling you. If you had picked up on AOL's uptrend when the latest MACD green trending bar was born (in early June), you would have made a timely entry into the stock and done well.

Needless to say, trending is the way to go!


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