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Ill-timed Green Bars during a Downtrend: PTEL
by kensey

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Powertel Inc (PTEL)







When evaluating the trending bars above a price graph, the color that dominates is the color that counts. When red dominates, give less weight to the green bars. When green dominates, give less weight to the red bars.

Powertel went into two eight-week downtrends that stretched two longish red bars across the top of the price graph. When stocks trend down, prices bounce and short-lived rallies ensue. Inevitably, existing shareholders sitting on paper losses try to make it back by buying again at a cheaper price. This is called dollar loss averaging. Alternatively, shorts that are sitting on gains head to the cashier stand.

Only add to your holdings ("pyramid") upon winning positions. Do take profits. The seller is doing the right thing, the buyer is doing the wrong thing. Notice that volume during both of the short lived rallies that produced green bars was thin. This does not indicate a strong trend up.

The short-lived rallies within the graph's six-month downtrend will sometimes persist long enough for a green trending bar to be traced on top of the price graph. These have got to be taken with a grain of salt. They are usually not buying opportunities. You have to side with the color that predominates and, if it is red, pass on a long trade.


I like the green bar that traced in July a bit better than the bar that traced in September. The July MACD green bar came off relatively low volatility and prices were able to cross the 50-day EMA (that's the purple line).

Alas, with so many stocks out there, it makes more sense to look for opportunity stocks where green dominates the price graph.

Another obvious sign of weakness is that the MACD centerline is near the top of the MACD indicator graph. The MACD lines cross above the centerline in slow moving waves, but these look like the tips of mountaintops, without the persistent bulk that sits underneath.

Another obvious sign of weakness is that the 13-day EMA is more often than not below the 50-day EMA. This means the stock has shown consistent short-term weakness.


Next: Cementation of the MACD Lines, Part 1


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